Tuesday, January 20, 2004

Reflections on Iowa 

Well, that was a bit of a surprise, huh?

Hmm, what to say? First off, readers should know (if you don't) that both Guthrie and I are Dean supporters (although we both like Edwards and Clark a lot). We diverge on issues a lot, but we basically agree on this (although he likes Edwards more than Clark--I like 'em both about equal).

Gephardt really seems to be a good guy--maybe even a great guy, but a dinosaur (for reasons I don't want to get into now, but let's just say that the world he grew up in--strong union household that can send their kids to schools like Northwestern--doesn't exist anymore). Kerry, whom I met briefly this fall, I also like---but I really, really disliked his attacks on Dean throughout the fall and into the winter.

As for last night's results, I was surprised (duh), but there's never anything wrong with CW-busting, in my view. Anyway, it seems like Dean really, really does need to win next week, even though he still has the $$ to compete through Super Tuesday in March. We'll see.

Edwards clearly has the Big Mo, but we'll see how it translates--there's a good chance that NH voters don't really care what Iowa voters think. Clark, I still like him a lot, but he gets a bit testy in one-on-one satellite interviews. He seemed defensive with Bill Maher last Friday, and was very defensive talking to Bob Dole on Larry King last night. So maybe Clark still isn't a great candidate.

Maybe the biggest question is not whether NH-ites will flock to Kerry to Edwards, but if they'll run from Dean.

One thing Dean has going for him--if he can survive, that means he survived the ringer. I don't think the media will be on him going forward as they have been over the last few weeks.

I'm sure Guthrie will have things to say later.
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